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Prediction for CME (2023-09-14T07:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-14T07:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26915/-1
CME Note: Bright CME NW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2 that may be associated with a faint partial to full halo. The source is a filament eruption seen between AR's 13425 & 13423 stretching from ~N22W40 to ~N26W55. Eruption begins ~2023-09-14T06:40Z in SDO/AIA 304 followed by brightening at the foot points of the source location. Associated dimming, minor EUV wave, moving/opening field lines, and post-eruptive arcade are visible in most SDO/AIA wavelengths including 193, 171, 211, and 131. The visible dimming is seen primarily north of the filament location with the minor EUV wave primarily seen along the W/NW limb in SDO/AIA 211. An M-class flare is associated with the post-eruptive arcade occurring between AR's 13425 & 13423. Arrival signature is characterized by a relatively modest jump in ion density and temperature, as well as in magnetic field, with B total reaching 8nT. Preceded by a relatively gradual increase in solar wind speed from 400 to 480 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-17T01:53Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-16T21:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2023 Sep 15 1231 UTC

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 30915
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Sep 2023, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Sep 2023  10CM FLUX: 149 / AP: 013 
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Sep 2023  10CM FLUX: 149 / AP: 018 
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Sep 2023  10CM FLUX: 147 / AP: 015

... A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph data from 07:30 UTC on Sept 14th. The CME is associated with a GOES M1.4 flare and a filament eruption, that occurred in the northwestern quadrant of the Sun from around 06:26 UTC on September 14th. The CME is directed to the north-west and is estimated to give a glancing blow to Earth's environment either late on Sept 16 or early on Sept 17. ...

Lead Time: 34.38 hour(s)
Difference: 4.38 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2023-09-15T15:30Z

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